Lesson 3. Using a Model to Make Predictions

Sugat Dabholkar, Connor Bain, Philip Woods, Kevin Hall
Biology, Self-directed
45-50 min
High School Advanced Biology (AP)
v6

Overview

Now that students have built a basic model, we're going to try and use this model to make predictions about the future of Isle Royale and the effects of different potential conservation efforts.

Standards

Next Generation Science Standards
  • Life Science
    • [HS-LS2] Ecosystems: Interactions, Energy, and Dynamics
    • [HS-LS4] Biological Evolution: Unity and Diversity
  • NGSS Crosscutting Concept
    • Patterns
    • Systems
    • Stability and Change
  • NGSS Practice
    • Analyzing Data
    • Using Models
    • Conducting Investigations
Computational Thinking in STEM
  • Data Practices
    • Analyzing Data
    • Manipulating Data
    • Visualizing Data
  • Modeling and Simulation Practices
    • Using Computational Models to Find and Test Solutions
    • Using Computational Models to Understand a Concept
  • Computational Problem Solving Practices
    • Troubleshooting and Debugging
  • Systems Thinking Practices
    • Investigating a Complex System as a Whole
    • Thinking in Levels
    • Understanding the Relationships within a System

Credits

Unit co-designed by Sugat Dabholkar in consultation with teachers at Schurz High School

Acknowledgement

CODAP is a computational tool for data analysis and representation developed and built by The Concord Consortium at https://codap.concord.org/  

The first four lessons are based on a Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) Biointeractive (https://www.hhmi.org/biointeractive/pocket-mouse-evolution)

Lesson 5 is based on the lesson Evolution in Action: The Galápagos Finches Authored by Paul Strode for Howard Hughes Medical Institute based on data collected by Peter and Rosemary Grant, Princeton University.

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (grants CNS-1138461, CNS-1441041 and DRL-1020101) and the Spencer Foundation (grant 201600069). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, and/or recommendations are those of the investigators and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding organizations.

Activities

  • 1. The Future of Isle Royale
  • 2. Testing Conservation Strategies
  • 3. Wrapping Up

Student Directions and Resources


Now that we have a basic model, let's try to use it to predict what might happen in the future to Isle Royale.

1. The Future of Isle Royale


Recently the Isle Royale ecosystem has been suffering. Since it has been isolated for a very long time, inbreeding has made the wolves less healthy. Also, there are very few wolves left on the island even though there are a lot of moose. We can use our model to try to predict what will happen in the future to Isle Royale.

In this lesson, you will use an advanced model of the ecosystem on Isle Royale to make a prediction.

First we need to set the model up so that it starts close to the current state of the island. There are very few wolves left and a lot of moose, so set the initial wolf population to 2 and set the initial moose population to about 200.

Because the wolves are unhealthy, decrease the WOLF-GAIN-FROM-FOOD slider from 20 to 13 and decrease the WOLF-REPRODUCE slider from 5% to 3%. These two "sliders" will help us model the fact that the wolves on Isle Royale are sick. They have a harder time staying healthy and a harder time having baby wolves.

Answer the first two questions below before running the model.


Question 1.1

Why do you think there are so many moose in the ecosystem right now?



Question 1.2

Before running the model, make a prediction. Do you think the wolf population will survive, or will it die out?

  It will usually survive
  It will usually die out


Question 1.3

Run the model with the speed slider all the way to the right. The model will stop after 500 ticks have passed. When the model stops, use the table below to record whether there are still wolves alive or not. Repeat this process at least 5 times.



Question 1.4

Look at the results of your experiment. Do you think the wolves on the real Isle Royale have a good chance of surviving into the future? Explain your answer.

2. Testing Conservation Strategies


Many scientists think that the wolf population on Isle Royale will probably die out in the near future. However, it may be possible to save them through some human intervention. We can use our model to test how good different interventions might be.

Answer the first two questions below before you start using the model.


Question 2.1

What do you think we could do on Isle Royale to increase the chances that the wolves will survive?



Question 2.2

How could you make the change you suggested actually happen in our model? For example, what parameters would you change? How would you change them?



Question 2.3

Make the change or changes you suggested in the model and test how often the wolves survive. Fill out the table below just like before.



Question 2.4

Do you think your intervention worked? Explain your answer.

3. Wrapping Up



Question 3.1

Give an example of how a scientist might use a model to study ecosystems. Think of something specific a scientist might want to learn by using a model like this.



Question 3.2

Models are useful tools for scientists, but no model can do everything. Why might it be hard to use a model like this to study ecosystems?



Question 3.3

Describe one big idea you have learned from this lesson.