When you start using the model, what is the first thing you changed? What happened?
Overview
In this lesson, students will begin to work on the NetLogo Model. There are questions, and activities that require Scientific and Computational thinking. Students will use the NetLogo Model to make predictions and to test their predictions. Then students will revise their questions and hypotheses, perform experiments, and answer further questions. Students will be trying to discover how to use a computational model to explain and predict.
For our purposes, we will use statistics from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship which was quarantined for 2 weeks in Yokohama, Japan starting February 5, 2020, when a passenger tested positive for a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; SARS-CoV-2 known as COVID-19. Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander Zarebski, and Gerardo Chowell created a statistical model to analyze the number of cases compared to the number of positive test results and within that figure the number of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Of the 634 confirmed cases, a total of 306 and 328 were reported to be symptomatic and asymptomatic. This led us to create an infection model where 50% of the infected people show no symptoms or are asymptomatic and 50% of infected individuals show symptoms or are considered symptomatic.
Mizumoto Kenji , Kagaya Katsushi , Zarebski Alexander & Chowell Gerardo . Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(10):pii=2000180. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917. ES.2020.25.10.2000180
Standards
Next Generation Science Standards
- Engineering, Technology, Applications of Science
- [HS-ETS1-1] Analyze a major global challenge to specify qualitative and quantitative criteria and constraints for solutions that account for societal needs and wants.
- NGSS Crosscutting Concept
- Patterns
- Causation
Activities
- 1. A Little Experimentation
- 2. Becoming Familiar with NetLogo
- 3. Let's Add Some Social Distancing
- 4. Now Let's Try Some Masks
Student Directions and Resources
You will begin using the NetLogo Model and experiment with the model in the upcoming periods. Again, be bold and experiment. Be sure to RECORD your original questions, hypotheses, and predictions and then record your findings and observations.
1. A Little Experimentation
You have time to explore the Model and play around with some parameters of the NetLogo Model. Be sure to use the graph feature to observe your data. Write down your observations in numbers (data) from the graph.
Question 1.1
Question 1.2
SAQ: Now it's time to experiment with the Behavior Parameters. Choose one of the Behavior Parameters and change its values. Run the model at least 75 ticks (days) (maybe more so you will notice a change in the graph). Explain how the parameter affects the spread of disease in the model.
2. Becoming Familiar with NetLogo
Here is where we get going. You will have a chance to manipulate the NetLogo Model. Please take care to answer questions when requested. Go in order and follow directions. Use the information generated in the graph to help you collect data and answer questions.
Question 2.1
What do you think will happen to a large number of people in a small area, without protection, in a COVID-19 hotspot? How do you know or why do you think this?
Question 2.2
Before changing the model, predict what will happen if you,
Click set-up
Click the infect-a-person button, 10 times.
no social distancing? and no face masks?.
Write an observation before running the model.
Write an observation after running the model for 100 ticks.
Question 2.3
Alrighty. that was fun! Now try this:
Predict what will happen in the Model, if you:
Click on big size world
Click set-up
Click on infect-a-person 10 times
no social distancing and no face masks
Move the Density Slider to 30%, Infectiousness to 65%, chance-recover to 40 5, infection-duration to 21 days
Write an observation NOW before running the model.
Run the model for 100 ticks. Using the graph, write your result (data).
Question 2.4
You have information from a graph and what you saw happen in the Model from question 3. How did the numbers change and why did the numbers change the way they did?
Question 2.5
SAQ: In the table below write:
One learning
One wondering
AND one thing you want to try with the NetLogo Model, going forward.
3. Let's Add Some Social Distancing
For this page, we will start to add Social Distancing to our Model and observe what happens.
Question 3.1
Set-up your Model this way:
Write a prediction about what will happen in the Model, if you:
Click on big size world
Click set-up
Click on infect-a-person 30 times
no face masks
Move the Density Slider to 30%, Infectiousness to 65%, chance-recover to 30%, infection-duration to 21 days, and click the social-distancing?
Write your PREDICTION.
Question 3.2
SAQ: Write your findings, from the graph, after running the Model for 100 ticks. Is it the same as the beginning numbers? What is happening? How do you know?
Question 3.3
Suppose we change the number of ticks to 150. Write a hypothesis of what the results will be.
Now run the model for 150 ticks.
Look at the graph and write your results.
What happened? Did it match your prediction?
Question 3.4
What will happen if you change the infection-duration in the model you designed in question 3? Why do you think this?
Try it.
What did you find?
Question 3.5
Run the Model with the parameters you choose.
Be sure to write the parameters and RESULTS in the space provided. Using the graph to understand your results, write about what your results tell us about practices during a COVID-19 pandemic.
4. Now Let's Try Some Masks
On this page we will add masks as a Safety Precaution. Run the model with masks as the only precaution. And then run the model with masks and social distancing. The parameters you chose (world size, density, infectiousness, etc) are up to you. Remember that in any good Scientific Experiment the Scientific Method is used.
To draw a useful conclusion use the graph feature. It is the best way to compare your results. Remember to change only one thing at a time. For example, if you want to test to see if masks are effective, set-up your NetLogo Model with the same parameters and run the Model with masks and without masks. In other words, change 1 thing and record your results. Okay, it's go time!!
Question 4.1
SAQ: Write your hypothesis for this question: Can a Computer Model Inform Us of Safe Practices During a Pandemic?
[A hypothesis is a statement that you can test using the evidence that you collect.]
Question 4.2
Design a simulation (experiment) to test your hypothesis. Explain your experimental design in the space below.
Question 4.3
Conduct the simulation (experiment). Use information from the graph and record your results.
Question 4.4
Using the information you gathered from the graph write your analysis of what is important to prevent contracting COVID-19.
