How did you set-up your NetLogo Model to test for the wearing of masks and using social distancing?
Overview
In this lesson, students will begin to work on the NetLogo Model. There are questions, and activities that require Scientific and Computational thinking. Students will use the NetLogo Model to make predictions and to test their predictions. Then students will revise their questions and hypotheses, perform experiments, and answer further questions. Students will be trying to discover how to use a computational model to explain and predict.
For our purposes, we will use statistics from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship which was quarantined for 2 weeks in Yokohama, Japan starting February 5, 2020, when a passenger tested positive for a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; SARS-CoV-2 known as COVID-19. Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander Zarebski, and Gerardo Chowell created a statistical model to analyze the number of cases compared to the number of positive test results and within that figure the number of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Of the 634 confirmed cases, a total of 306 and 328 were reported to be symptomatic and asymptomatic. This led us to create an infection model where 50% of the infected people show no symptoms or are asymptomatic and 50% of infected individuals show symptoms or are considered symptomatic.
Mizumoto Kenji , Kagaya Katsushi , Zarebski Alexander & Chowell Gerardo . Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(10):pii=2000180. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917. ES.2020.25.10.2000180
Standards
Next Generation Science Standards
- Engineering, Technology, Applications of Science
- [HS-ETS1-1] Analyze a major global challenge to specify qualitative and quantitative criteria and constraints for solutions that account for societal needs and wants.
- NGSS Crosscutting Concept
- Patterns
- Causation
Activities
- 1. And Now, Let's Add Masks AND Social Distancing
- 2. Computational Thinking: Putting It All Together
Student Directions and Resources
You will begin using the NetLogo Model and experiment with the model in the upcoming periods. Again, be bold and experiment. Be sure to RECORD your original questions, hypotheses, and predictions and then record your findings and observations.
1. And Now, Let's Add Masks AND Social Distancing
You will now perform another computational experiment on your own. Your teacher will provide guidance and questioning to direct your learning and experimentation. You should be working to draw a conclusion about safety practices and COVID-19. Remember, it is not your OPINION that we are looking for. It is a fact based conclusion with scientific research and experimentation to back up what you are saying. You know, FACTS. In the end you will make a Claim, back it up with Evidence, and finally use Reasoning to tie it all together. You got this!
Question 1.1
Question 1.2
Using evidence from the graph, what claim can you make about wearing a mask and social distancing together?
Question 1.3
What information/advice do you feel confident about sharing with your family and friends about the use of masks and social distancing?
Question 1.4
SAQ: What are some questions that you are left with? (at least 2). What would you like to add or remove from the model to help you answer those questions?
2. Computational Thinking: Putting It All Together
You have completed a lot of great work and learning. You have used a NetLogo computer model to take a question (Why is COVID-19 so dangerous and What Can We Do to Mitigate Risk?) and quantify it into evidence-based claims. In the case of our NetLogo Model, the results are given to us as information in a graph. It's time to put it all together. What do the numbers tell us?
Question 2.1
SAQ: You have collected data about the number of Sick, Dead, Infected, and Recovered people in the models that you have run.
In the space provided, use the drawing tools to recreate your data. Be sure to label the x and y axes. Share all the information you collected.
First, draw the lines in the graph to show it would look when people are not following social distancing and wearing masks.
Note: Draw your sketch in the sketchpad below
Question 2.2
SAQ: Now, draw the lines in the graph showing Sick, Dead, Infected, and Recovered people when people follow social distancing and wear masks.
Note: Draw your sketch in the sketchpad below
Question 2.3
SAQ: The NetLogo COVID-19 Transmission Model is very effective at giving us some information. However, it does not give us all the information we may need. What are the limitations of the model? List at least 3.
Question 2.4
SAQ: On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the best, how effective do you think your research is? In other words, how well do you think the NetLogo Covid-19 Transmission Model is at answering our question? Why do you think this?
